Bitcoin log trend bands

A straight line through all daily closes on log-log scales, with bands one and two standard deviations either side. Neutral labels only.

What it is

Over its history bitcoin's price has roughly followed a straight line when both price and time are on log scales. The bands show how far price has strayed from that line: far below, below, near, above or far above trend.

How it's calculated

We fit log10(price) against log10(days since Jan 3, 2009) by least squares over every saved daily close, then draw the line plus and minus 1 and 2 standard deviations of the leftovers.

Limitations

The line is fitted with hindsight to the same data it's drawn on, and refitting with new data shifts it. Nothing guarantees price keeps following it. Our labels are descriptive only.

Historical context only. This is not a prediction or financial advice, and past patterns can stop working.

Charts by TradingView Lightweight Charts (Apache-2.0). All indicators.

A curve fitted to past prices with hindsight. Historical context only, not a prediction or financial advice. Past prices don't predict future prices.